World Fertility 2024

The Population Division compiles global population projections, using a fertility transition framework to compare trends across regions. It categorizes areas by when childbearing falls below replacement levels and proposes policy strategies to help nations plan for evolving demographic shifts.
The Population Division prepares the United Nations population estimates and projections, which are published in the biennial series known as the World Population Prospects (WPP). WPP data serve as the standard figures on population for use throughout the United Nations system, including for the global monitoring of the Sustainable Development Goals. The WPP includes estimates and projections at the national, regional and global levels of the number of births, the total fertility rate, age-specific fertility rates, the mean age of childbearing and other indicators related to fertility. This report adopts the analytical framework of the fertility transition to explore differences in fertility trends across countries and regions today and to provide insight into their future trajectories. Countries and areas are categorized according to the time at which fertility dropped, or is expected to drop, to below-replacement fertility of 2.1 births per woman. The report also offers a series of policy recommendations to help countries prepare for fertility levels that may differ significantly from those of the recent past.

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