Thinking Historically

A Guide to Statecraft and Strategy

A compelling and insightful argument for historical study as a way to understand and navigate the complex, often confusing world of decision-making

Winner, 2026 Lionel Gelber Prize

“Gavin’s writing is nuanced and compelling. It’s also fun. Churchill would have loved Gavin’s book and would have encouraged aspiring statespeople to study it carefully.”—John T. Shaw, Chicago Tribune

It seems obvious that we should use history to improve policy. If we have a good understanding of the past, it should enable better decisions in the present, especially in the extraordinarily consequential worlds of statecraft and strategy. But how do we gain that knowledge? How should history be used? Sadly, it is rarely done well, and historians and decision-makers seldom interact. But in this remarkable book, Francis J. Gavin explains the many ways historical knowledge can help us understand and navigate the complex, often confusing world around us.

Good historical work convincingly captures the challenges and complexities the decision-maker faces. At its most useful, history is less a narrowly defined field of study than a practice, a mental awareness, a discernment, and a responsiveness to the past and how it unfolded into our present world—a discipline in the best sense of the word. Gavin demonstrates how a historical sensibility helps us to appreciate the unexpected; complicates our assumptions; makes the unfamiliar familiar and the familiar unfamiliar; and requires us, without entirely suspending moral judgment, to try to understand others on their own terms. This book is a powerful argument for thinking historically as a way for readers to apply wisdom in encountering what is foreign to them.

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